The United States has had some amazing leaders over the years.

Our luck has run out.

This is why I haven’t been posting or getting a lot of stuff done. I’ve been in a funk. Some has been personal, much has been political or conflict driven. We are in for some major challenges, and I am unconvinced that the US or the broader West has leaders up to the tasks ahead.

What do I mean.

It’s simple. First and foremost, in Gaza and Ukraine we are watching the future of warfare, and our possible futures, unfold. This is ugly as hell. Years ago on this site, I gave you all a heads-up about the ramifications of drone warfare in combat, and in my fiction I explored and extrapolated the lessons I learned overseas.

Well, the drone warfare I encountered in the desert wastes was a joke compared to what is happening now. Look at what cash-starved Ukraine is doing to the Russian Navy in the Black Sea. Is the USN taking note? They damn well better be. With cheap sea drones the Ukrainians are sending very expensive ships, including at least one capitol ship, to the bottom of the sea.

Tanks and infantry are suffering heavy losses. Unsustainable losses, although the First World War demonstrates that there is a lot of damage that a country can sustain before its army refuses to fight. Note to our sclerotic, votes, and largesse dependent weapons industry- play time is over. The whole peace dividend thing was the purest bullshit, and Europe in particular is realizing how badly they’re exposed, although we aren’t far behind.

Once again, the windmill I tilt at- we need the infantry Armored Fighting Suit, married to drone tech and battlefield AI. Which leads into the next point.

Land mines. Does anyone who is carping about the Ukrainian’s lack of success realize what a hellscape the Russian Army has made in Ukraine? The mine densities are said to be five mines per square meter, for hundreds of kilometers, in belts twenty klicks deep. Let that sink in. Nasty little plastic bouncing betties like the POM-2, and it’s evil, seismically activated little brother, the POM-3. And that’s just the anti-personnel stuff, and only a few of many types.

Anti-mine treaties are great and everything, but the Russians, and other bad actors worldwide, laugh their asses off about them. Also, the Ukraine War just launched a beacon to the world- if you really don’t want to lose territory, plant a shitload of mines. Fat chance that some poor bastard in a heavy kevlar suit with a mine detector is going to make a dent in the Surovkin belt- first, the mines are made not to be detected by a conventional detector. Second, the mined area is usually loaded full of junk and shrapnel. Third, any Army Engineer will tell you that a minefield not covered by fires will not stop maneuver forces. So, guess what? The minefields are covered by fires. A guy with a machine gun who wants to kill you. Finally, minefields don’t look like manicured football fields. No. They are anything but. The damn mines are everywhere, hidden amongst weeds, shrubs, dirt clods, you name it. For fifty years, a sizeable percentage of Ukraine is lost. Worthless. Unless you feel like every kid in a given village dying within a month, multiplied by hundreds of villages.

The only help here is the armored fighting suit, aided by AI. Which we will need anyway, because some dumbass tech-bro is no doubt working on the Terminator as we speak. Humans are bad enough, if we let the machines fight our wars we are incredibly screwed.

We need clear leadership in military terms. Instead, we have more of the same throw money at it bullshit. Guess what? It’s not working.

Second point where we need real leadership, and leadership isn’t there. Our politics. Wow, if you would have asked me ten years ago about the surreal crap we’ve all seen these past years I would have laughed.

I’m not laughing now. What a mess- I’d say “unprecedented,” but that’s overused. We’ve never been up against this before- our two Presidential current front runners are inadequate to the task, to put it mildly. They should both clear the decks for people with less baggage and a couple less decades. Being President is tough, two guys born in the 1940’s with excellent chances of dying in office, probably at the worst possible moment, is undesirable.

Which brings us to leadership, and the sucking vacuums where leaders would otherwise sit in various capitols in the West. Here are some negative examples to watch out for, and avoid, in proposed leaders:

-Blame others. A leader accepts responsibility for what happens on his or her watch. You can delegate tasks, but not responsibility.

-Set different standards for different groups. This is a sure-fire way to cause resentment among the ranks.

-Engage in needless name-calling. A leader sets himself above the fray, and sets a positive example for his followers. Examples matter! People will emulate your behavior, for better or worse.

-Overindulge in personal luxuries. This makes a leader vulnerable to accusations, baseless or not.

-Have exceptionally low moral standards. I am hardly a Puritan, and we are all human. But if you lay down with dogs, you are going to catch fleas. This will bite a leader, sooner or later.

-Have zero integrity. If you send men to die, or you ask a nation to follow you into battle, they need to believe that you are telling them the truth. I am not so stupid as to state that a leader must always be honest- deception and subterfuge are a key part of battlefield leadership. Make no mistake, our leaders are also commanders. No President hasn’t killed someone, or millions of someones. But when you speak to your people, you need to be straight when it matters.

-Engage in hypocrisy and projection. People usually see right through this. Ever notice how liars despise liars, or cheaters accuse everyone else of cheating? Don’t do it.

-Fail to live a life of courage. Bullying is not courage. It is the opposite.

-Believe in nothing, to be a nihilist. If you have no basic set of principles to adhere to, you will justify anything. Your followers, who do believe in something- you– will follow you right over a cliff. I used to wonder why Germans kept fighting for Hitler after the war was plainly lost. I no longer wonder. Fanaticism paired with nihilism is a deadly combination.

-Fail to form a cohesive team. A leader gets as many people as possible, from as many different backgrounds as possible, to work toward a common goal.

-Have no sense of mission. A leader must see the mission and work toward the mission, even to the detriment to his well-being. Because the mission comes first.

-Kiss up, and kick down. A version of bullying. Don’t do it.

-See your opponents as enemies, incapable of honest disagreement. A leader sets himself up for failure if he doesn’t understand the opposing side. Disagreement is fine. Demonization is not.

-Makes excuses. Day One of Officer Candidate School or Basic Training: “There is no excuse. Only failure.”

-Have no guiding vision, only an eye for personal gain.

-Fail to recognize that loyalty goes both ways.

So, that’s as many as I can think of right now, I’m sure there’s more points. I’m not saying that leaders should be perfect, infallible beings. Just that they meet some minimum standards. If they do too much of the above, look elsewhere.

Because leadership matters.

For a lack of it, we are going to get our asses handed to us.

This is my fear.